Alexander Makarenko, dokt. physical-mathematical sciences, Professor,
Institute of applied system analysis of NTTU "KPI"
GLOBAL ASPECTS OF THE LOCAL PROBLEMS OF UKRAINE
Now Ukraine is going through a difficult period, which may determine her way on the Decade. The main new factor is Evromajdan, expressed the mood of a very large part of the population, and military aggression in the East. Reflecting on this, you can come up with some proposals of the various issues. But with the intention to offer ongoing advice occurs, even for tactical tasks now need to come out with a common understanding of the current situation and general issues of building the future of Ukraine and desired for all the functioning of the State. In the first place is due to the fact that Ukraine has neglected analytical work both in General and on specific problems in the area of the functioning of the State nakopičilas a very large number of calls and nerozglânutih. At the same time these issues are very complicated, require hard work, interest groups, politicians, study and taking into account the reactions of society and the formation of proposals on these issues. Therefore, the suggested materials is only a list of questions, and it is far from complete. But, repeating once again, it seems that even the understanding of the presence of such questions can help in making decisions in our difficult situation.
I. LONG-TERM GLOBAL TARGETS
I 1 civil society development
I 2 the creation of systems of State management with a minimum level of corruption, including the implementation of deregulation
I 3 Finance
I 4 of the land (which ownership is acceptable)
I 5 ecology and nature conservation
I 6 transport and infrastructure, address the issue of ownership
I 7 Energy
I 8 housing
I 9 village life – how to raise living standards and provide perspective and style of young prospects, including in relation to Kar ʼ openings in cities
I 10 pension system – its security, stability and enforce standards
I 11 reduction of unemployment and the social protection of the unemployed
I 12 Medicine
I 13 science and education
I 14 international relations
I 15 Providing timely change of generations in the governance structure
I 16 Mafia and criminal activity
I-17 military aspects
I 18 Economy
I 19 Future regions
I 20 the national question
II SEREDN′OTERMÌNOVÌ GOALS
Among these goals is individually significant, but the main goal should be to solve long-term problems.
III LOCAL TASKS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MEDIUM-AND LONG-TERM GOALS
IV CURRENT URGENT TASK
STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINE
The following list of questions and problems you can't solve alone any staff researchers and requires the involvement of experts, policymakers, the scientific community, business, etc, of course, taking into account the opinions, wishes and reactions possible different strata of the society. However, no common Rod concept and system interdisciplinary approach offers distinct groups (besides the often opposing) will inevitably become as a mosaic of ideas and proposals. The author proposes a "skeleton" concept (koncepcìjj) strategic development, which include the individual proposals or programs of development of branches of national economy, segments of the society, regions etc.
Global scenarios for global development
In this subsection we present possible scenarios of the world evolution, based on a review of what exists in the world of research, globalìstiki, world-systems analysis, geopolitics, geoekonomìki, international relations, ethnogenesis, social Psychology, sustainable development, political science, philosophy, history, research on global climate change, as well as in the global models of society, proposed by the same author. Details reviews and concepts presented in the more complete publications (see references), but in this short article we offer only najdorečnìšì, universally recognized scripts.
First of all, we note some of the global scenario. Here's roughly what is offered by the National Intelligence Council of the United States in the forecasts to 2025 and then to 2050 (all this to 2014): I 1 world without the West; I 2 "October surprise" – an environmental disaster; I 3 "Destruction BRÌKu" – the conflict between India and China through access to vital resources; I 4 "politics not always local, where different non-State actors combine to develop an international programme on the environment and to elect a General Secretary of the United Nations. They all, albeit based on certain trends today look real enough.
The American analysts believe that: a) soon politicians and the public have to cope with the growing demand for multilateral cooperation, b) current trends lead to the occurrence of 15-20 in the following years the sliced and full of contradictions of the world) bagatopolârnìst and hopelessness are the main features of the future system.
An important design scenarios is a comparison of the modern path of development – economic (and) with the desire for individual economic benefits and ways of sustainable development of the world (b), when taken into account the needs of future generations.
Individual blocks of different scenarios make up a study of 1) global climate change, the global economy 2), 3) predictions of the provision of meals, 4) demographics, 5th) forecasts in energy and many others.
If the fall of the global levels, too many countries in the world dealing with the forecasting of regional and local scale, and the results obtained can be useful for our country and should be taken into account in the construction of development programs in Ukraine.
STRATEGY AND TACTICS OF REFORM IN UKRAINE
In addition to the creation of a scenario analysis of possible options for reform and end their goals also plays a very important role, and the possibility of a real implementation scenarios (with the appearance of even the best). First, you need to carefully think through step by step plans implementation scenarios, the pace of their conduct, the scale, the criteria for evaluating and complete stages, planning of organization and self-organization processes. The experience of successful and non-successful reform gives as history and world history. Note that in the process of reform can destroy the neoberežnimi actions of the fragile fabric of social structures. One of the negative examples – the collapse of civilizational structures after major floods in the modern United States at New Orleans, when the power was gone for a few days and all social structures.
While the above issues require a greater time and effort, you can be reminded of some important aspects and possible proposals for their solution are ʼ operator now (more of these and other issues are discussed in separate publications).
1. Defensive problems
Given the present state of the ARMED FORCES require strategic planning operations, both in terms of operational research and system analysis and logistics. Need to develop mobilization readiness of the total population, and the majority without conscription to the Army (i.e. the creation of structures and networks for training without discontinuing – partly referring to experience of other countries, particularly Switzerland). Special attention needs a rapid transfer of the industry on the defensive the rails and planning in advance of the conversion after the end of the war.
2. The problem of the involvement of specialists, experts and advisors
Nazrìlì reforming all spheres of operation of Ukraine needs significant changes at all levels. But, as taught social psychology and theory of conflict, very difficult or almost impossible to undertake fundamental reform without the powerful teams of the reformers with the new thinking. This means that you need a change of managers of middle and senior management, dovgorìčnih advisors, experts and one legitimate opportunity to make this is a resignation by age. The second way is the application of lustration laws. And the third possibility – the implementation of the laws of the foreign corrupt practices Act. But you need special conditions and caution in respect of education and Science (meaning teachers and scholars, who are still working and supporting the standards of high level Soviet times), using the existing formal indicators, we can lose and education and Science (and the future).
3. Science and education
You want to immediately determine the level of our education and science, but bring to this working teachers, researchers, not just managers, representatives of the Cabinet of Ministers, journalists, and students. Only after this you can plan a reform of education taking into account different scenarios of rozvitkìv (and needs) of Ukraine and the world.
4. Medical aspects
First, it is necessary to pay attention to the biological safety of Ukraine, especially considering that in military time and fairly open borders of these abandoned. Also need organizational events in State-wide to rehabilitation and inclusion in the public life of soldiers returning from the front.
The results described above are only the first steps in realization of potential opportunities, especially in the economy and business. Conducting similar research, their computer ʼ (it) provision and application to real tasks currently being taught in the ESC "IASA" was first created in Ukraine specialty "social engineering".
1. A.s. Makarenko system analysis, formalization and modeling of sustainable development. Analysis, modeling, management. 1. Zb. Sciences. Prats ' mother, ІPSA k.: Sprіnt-service, 2013, s. 73-111.
2. Makarenko a. models of global socio-economic processes//Report of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, 1994, no. 12, pp. 85-87.
3. Makarenko o.s. systems analysis and sinergetika of large socio-economic systems. Mater. first of all Ukrainian. Sciences. confit. "Sinergetika: processes of self-organization of technical, technological and social systems", June 2003, Zhitomir, s. 48-50.
4. Makarenko a. Models obŝestvennyh âvlenij s scenarnye podhody in prinâtii rešenij. System research and information technologies, 2003, no. 3, pp. 127-142.